Trey Hendrickson Trade: Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Colts

The Colts have been linked to Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, but Cincinnati’s price tag is steep. Rumors suggest Indy might offer something like DE Kwity Paye plus a mid-round pick (perhaps a third-rounder). However, insiders say the Bengals won’t settle for such a low return. Cincinnati is “angling to keep” Hendrickson – teams he’s spoken to believe the Bengals want “either a first-round pick or a strong Day 2 package” to trade him. In other words, a third-rounder plus Paye likely falls short of Cincinnati’s demands. As The Athletic’s Dianna Russini notes, teams are “willing to pay the contract that he desires but have found Cincinnati’s current asking price to be ‘ridiculous,’” one NFL exec told her.

Given that any realistic offer (Paye + mid-round pick) is widely viewed as insufficient given Hendrickson’s performance and contract expectations, it's hard to believe that the Colts will be able to garner the high performing EDGE rusher. The Bengals have invested heavily in their stars (Chase, Higgins) and likely want equal compensation for their sack leader. Nonetheless, let's take a closer look at why the trade could & couldn't make sense for the Colts.

Why the Trade Could Make Sense for the Colts

Upgrading the Pass Rush: Indianapolis ranked only 25th in team sacks last season, even after drafting Laiatu Latu in the first round. If no further moves are made, and Latu doesn't take a substatial step forward, the Colts will continue to lack a proven, high-end edge rusher. Adding Hendrickson – who led the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2024 – would immediately bolster Indy’s pass rush. In fact, CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr notes Hendrickson would be a “logical landing spot” for Indy because new DC Lou Anarumo coached him in Cincinnati. Anarumo “personally oversaw each of Hendrickson’s prolific seasons” there. Bringing him in would give the Colts a veteran with elite production in Anarumo’s system.

Win-Now Urgency: Colts GM Chris Ballard is under pressure to deliver a winner. Indianapolis has missed the playoffs three straight years, and national analysts warn Ballard is “at serious risk of losing his job” if the team doesn’t improve in 2025. Jim Irsay has reiterated Indy will “be back” in contention, but to justify that the Colts may need immediate-impact veterans rather than waiting on draft development. Acquiring an All-Pro pass rusher like Hendrickson signals a win-now mindset, but it might come at the cost of long-term success.

Familiar Scheme Fit: Hendrickson excels in a 4-3 defense with a strong emphasis on run containment and gap discipline – hallmarks of Indy’s system under Anarumo. The continuity is appealing: Hendrickson already knows Anarumo’s coaching style and terminology. Sure, the Colts have a young edge duo in Latu and Paye, along with a former season sack leader in Samson Ebukam (returning from a torn Achilles). However, outside of hopeful projections, the Colts pass rushing unit is riddled with question marks. There is too much parity in the potential production next season, and bringing in Hendrickson would complement Paye and Latu along with giving Anarumo a proven veteran who has thrived under his tulage previously.

Proven Production: Even at age 30, Hendrickson remains in his prime. He put up 35 sacks over the last two seasons (NFL-high 17.5 in 2023) and earned first-team All-Pro honors. He also brings playoff experience and leadership. Given Indy’s window and the urgency to win, there’s an argument to be made that adding a top-tier pass rusher now could push the Colts deeper into playoff contention.

Colts’ Roster Context: The Colts have cap space this year and can absorb Hendrickson’s 2024 cap hit (about $20M) easily. They also have young players to offer in a potential trade. The payoff of adding an impact player like Hendrickson could outweigh giving up a pick and Paye, especially if the Colts believe they are on the cusp of escaping mediocrity.

Why the Trade Could Be Risky

Age and Decline: Hendrickson turns 31 next season. While still highly productive now, history shows many pass rushers decline after 30–32. For example, Cameron Jordan (age 34) had just 2 sacks in 2023 after six seasons of double-digit totals. Brandon Graham (age 35) managed only 3.5 sacks last year. Even Jadeveon Clowney (age 33) saw his sack total drop from 9.5 in 2023 to 5.5 in 2024. There’s no guarantee Hendrickson won’t face a similar decline as he reaches his mid-30s. Paying a premium for a player whose peak years may be behind him is always a gamble. A gamble that the Colts should be unwilling to take.

Below is a snapshot of high performing NFL defensive ends age 30 and older, illustrating how sacks often taper off with age. Several of these veterans saw modest sack totals later in their career despite having exemplary peaks. This underscores the risk of investing heavily in a soon-to-be-32-year-old pass rusher.

High Draft Cost: Giving up Paye (a former first-round pick) plus a high pick is steep. Youth and draft capital are the currency of the NFL, and trading an early draft pick and a young starter could hamstring Indy’s ability to build depth elsewhere. Bengals insiders believe a first-round pick or a “strong Day 2” package is fair value, implying Paye+round-3 wouldn’t cut it. Even if Indy offered less, they’d risk depleting their pipeline of young talent and locking themselves into immediate win-now mode.

Salary Commitment: Hendrickson’s contract demands will be huge. Analysts expect any team giving him an extension to pay upwards of $30 million per year – on par with the game’s elite. Adding Hendrickson on top of Indy’s current core would likely put him among the team’s top 2-3 cap numbers, forcing cuts or restructures. Ballard's historical mantra has always been rewarding and resigning home-grown players that perform; however, with his job being on the line he may continue to deviate from that strategy. This offseason, he opted to let Fries walk so he could sign players like Ward and Jones. Hendrickson would entail another tier of spending, but it may be a continuation in Ballard's new approach to team building.

Uncertain Bengals Intent: Lastly, the Bengals may not even want to trade Hendrickson at all. The SI report calls their asking price “ridiculous” and notes that if they truly wanted a deal, it would have happened by now. By dangling Hendrickson in rumors, Cincinnati may simply be leveraging other teams (or trying to pressure Hendrickson to accept a contract). If the Bengals abruptly withdraw him from trade talks (as SI suggests they could), Indy’s inquiries might yield nothing except losing equity with current players that are being discussed as trade capital.

Extension Cost & Cap Impact

If Indy did trade for Hendrickson, they’d almost certainly need to extend him long-term. Given his market value, expect a deal in the neighborhood of $28–32 million per year. (For reference, Maxx Crosby got 3 years/$106.5M, Myles Garrett 4/$160M.)

Any new deal would be front-loaded with guarantees – making Hendrickson’s cap charge in early years sky-high. That $30M number would dwarf existing contracts. For example, Paye’s entire 4-year deal averaged a cap hit of $3.4M a year. In short, signing Hendrickson long-term would immediately vault him among the NFL’s top paid defenders and significantly restrict Indy’s payroll flexibility. The team would have to weigh whether one elite (but aging) pass rusher is worth constraining the roster-building budget for years to come.